Chiefs vs. Bills: Updated Odds, Stat Predictions for 2024 AFC Divisional Game
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Bills QB Josh AllenRyan Kang/Getty Images
The NFL’s divisional round will wrap with a thrilling matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.
While neither of these teams finished with the best record in the AFC—that would be the Baltimore Ravens—both loom as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Buffalo got hot down the stretch, while Kansas City has a big edge in postseason experience.
Sunday’s finale will also feature another round in the ongoing quarterback battle between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. One of them will advance to the AFC Championship Game, and with Buffalo holding home-field advantage, it might be Allen this time.
Below, we’ll dive into the latest odds and player props for Bills-Chiefs and make a few predictions.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
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Chiefs QB Patrick MahomesDavid Eulitt/Getty Images
Date: Sunday, January 21
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV and Live Stream: CBS, Paramount+
Line: Buffalo -2.5
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Money Line: Buffalo -148 (bet $148 to win $100), Kansas City +124 (bet $100 to win $124)
Josh Allen Over 43.5 Rushing Yards
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Bills QB Josh AllenKathryn Riley/Getty Images
Allen may struggle to pass the ball against a tremendous Chiefs defense. Kansas City leaned on that side of the ball in 2023 and was extremely stingy against the pass. It finished the year ranked fourth in both passing yards allowed and passing touchdowns allowed.
Expect Buffalo to use Allen’s legs to keep Kansas City off-balance. Allen only rushed for 32 yards in the Week 14 meeting with Kansas City, but the Bills were more careful with Allen during the early and middle portions of the regular season.
Allen has rushed for at least 44 yards in each of his past three games, and the proverbial gloves are off when it comes to using him as a scrambler. He carried eight times for 77 yards and a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round.
While Allen should make his fair share of jaw-dropping throws, expect his legs to make a difference against a Chiefs D ranked 24th in yards per rush allowed.
Josh Allen Stat Prediction: 235 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 65 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
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Chiefs QB Patrick MahomesDavid Eulitt/Getty Images
Mahomes might be a bit more productive through the air because Buffalo’s defense is at far less than 100 percent. Top corner Tre’Davious White is out for the year, and players like Christian Benford and Terrel Bernard are dealing with injuries.
Mason Rudolph threw for 229 yards against Buffalo last week, and with all due respect to Rudolph, Mahomes is a superior passer.
However, Buffalo ranks second in passing touchdowns allowed and will present Mahomes with a brutal road environment.
“Even though I know it’s going to be hostile and there are going to be people talking trash, I’m excited for it because it’s one of the best environments in football,” Mahomes told reporters.
Kansas City’s recent struggles in the red zone also loom large here. The Chiefs have too often settled for field goals, and Mahomes has thrown multiple touchdown passes only once in his last six games. He had just one passing TD in the last meeting with Buffalo.
Patrick Mahomes Stat Prediction: 260 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 48 rushing yards
Travis Kelce Over 61.5 Receiving Yards
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Chiefs TE Travis KelceJamie Squire/Getty Images
While Mahomes has started to forge a strong connection with rookie wideout Rashee Rice, tight end Travis Kelce remains his go-to target. Kansas City can use Kelce to attack a Buffalo defense dealing with injuries at linebacker and safety.
The Steelers tried that approach last Monday, and tight end Pat Freiermuth gashed Buffalo for five catches and 76 yards.
Kelce should have an opportunity to go off against the Bills on Sunday, something he did in the first meeting. He caught six passes for 83 yards in that game, and he might be even more productive in the rematch.
Expect a lot of Buffalo’s game plan to be centered around slowing Kelce. However, the star tight end, Mahomes and coach Andy Reid are well accustomed to battling that plan in the postseason.
With Chiefs and Bills defenses that rank 24th and 28th, respectively, in yards per carry allowed, much of this game will be decided on the ground. Kelce, though, figures to be one of the few pass-catchers capable of taking over in this matchup.
Travis Kelce Stat Prediction: 7 catches, 87 receiving yards
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