Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, odds: 2023 Madrid Derby picks, Feb. 25 best bets by soccer insider

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, odds: 2023 Madrid Derby picks, Feb. 25 best bets by soccer insider

The third installment of the Madrid Derby this season will take place Saturday, with Real Madrid hosting Atletico Madrid in a Spanish La Liga match at Bernabeu Stadium. Real Madrid (16-3-3) have won the first two, taking a 2-1 victory in the first league meeting at Metropolitano in September. Los Blancos then took prevailed 3-1 in extra time at home in the Copa del Rey quarterfinals late last month. The reigning league champions are second in La Liga’s table, eight points behind Barcelona entering the matchweek. Atletico (12-5-5) are in fourth place in La Liga, 10 points behind their rivals, but are 3-1-0 since the Copa del Rey loss. They beat Athletic Bilbao 1-0 last Sunday. Real followed a 2-0 league victory against Osasuna last Saturday with a 5-2 rout of Liverpool in the Champions League on Tuesday.

Kickoff in Madrid, Spain is set for 12:30 p.m. ET. Real are -121 favorites (risk $121 to win $100) in Caesars Sportsbook’s latest Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid odds. Atletico are +370 underdogs, a draw is listed at +230 and the over/under for total match goals is set at 2.5. Before making any Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid picks, you need to check out the Spanish La Liga predictions and best bets from proven soccer insider Martin Green.

After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been spot-on. Green has generated almost $33,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season.

Green is on a 23-11 run and is up 11.55 units on his last 34 soccer picks, which is a profit of well over $1,100 for $100 bettors. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Green has broken down the Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid matchup from all sides. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid:

  • Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid spread: Real -0.5 (-125)
  • Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid over/under: 2.5 goals
  • Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid money line: Real -121, Atletico +370, Draw +230
  • RMA: Los Blancos have a 21-6 advantage in goals over their past nine games
  • ATM: Los Rojiblancos have allowed more than one goal once in their past 15
  • Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back Real Madrid

Los Blancos should have a ton of confidence off the rout of Liverpool at Anfield. Karim Benzema and Vinicius Junior both scored twice, and those two also dashed Atletico’s Copa del Rey hopes with extra-time goals a month ago. Benzema appears healthy and in top form, and he has 11 league goals this season. He has only played in 13 La Liga matches because of injuries but has nine goals in nine overall matches in 2023. Vinicius has seven goals, tied with Federico Valverde for second-most on the team. Valverde and Rodrygo scored in the first league meeting this season.

Rodrygo scored the regulation goal in the Copa del Rey match and has four league goals and five assists. He is part of a star-studded midfield that should have no trouble controlling Saturday’s match. Real held the ball for 61% of the last meeting and are second in La Liga in possession at more than 59%. Atletico are under 51%. They also outshot Los Rojiblancos 23-12 in the 3-1 victory and have a league-high 372 shots in league play. Los Blancos are 4-1-1 in the past six meetings and 6-7-1 in the 14 matches since their last loss to Atletico at Bernabeu in 2016.

Why you should back Atletico Madrid

Los Rojiblancos have been resting for this one for almost a week while Real were traveling to Liverpool for their midweek match. The visitors also have been excellent on the back line, so they won’t be spun around by the midfield like Liverpool were. Atletico have conceded 17 goals in their 22 matches, tied for second-fewest in La Liga. Only seven of those goals were allowed in their road matches, and they are plus-8 in goal differential away from home. They are 7-2-2 in road matches. They also have allowed the second-fewest shots on target in the league (63).

Opponents are putting 25.6% of attempts on target, the stingiest mark in the league. On the other hand, Atletico don’t take a ton of shots, but they hit the target. They are putting 35.6% on net, fifth-best in La Liga. Atletico also don’t get a ton of goals, but Alvaro Morata and Antoine Griezmann are proven scorers and have seven apiece. Los Rojiblancos will make Real work for their chances and try to frustrate them. The visitors are second in the league in tackles (413) and first in tackles won (253). 

How to make Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid picks

Green has taken a deep dive into the Madrid Derby and looked at it from every angle. He is leaning Under the goal total and provides two confident best bets, including one with a significant plus-money payout, and his full breakdown of this Madrid Derby. He’s only sharing those picks here.

So, who wins Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid match, all from the European soccer expert who has generated almost $1,100 for $100 bettors on his recent soccer picks, and find out.

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